N N Taleb's Probability Questions

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These are mini lectures explaining technical points in Taleb's INCERTO (Antifragile, The Black Swan, etc.) They are split into "Technical Notes" and "Tutorials". Motto: Rigorous but not academic: science and scholarship for the real world, not as spectator sport.

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Alexander Taleb: Why Do Planes Crash?

Alexander Taleb: Why Do Planes Crash? N N Taleb's Probability Questions

5.7K views - 8 months ago

Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 20 (The Real World Risk Summer School, 2025)

Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 20 (The Real World Risk Summer School, 2025) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

12.3K views - 8 months ago

Discussion with Pierre Zalloua on 'Ancestors'

Discussion with Pierre Zalloua on 'Ancestors' N N Taleb's Probability Questions

9.5K views - 11 months ago

MINI LECTURE 19 - Conditional Probability & A Fallacy in Cardiology Concerning LDL

MINI LECTURE 19 - Conditional Probability & A Fallacy in Cardiology Concerning LDL N N Taleb's Probability Questions

25.3K views - 1 year ago

Does the Ketogenic Diet Work for Brain Cancer? Finding Signal in a Small Sample.

Does the Ketogenic Diet Work for Brain Cancer? Finding Signal in a Small Sample. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

15.2K views - 1 year ago

The IQ debate, a conclusion

The IQ debate, a conclusion N N Taleb's Probability Questions

38.4K views - 1 year ago

Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution

Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution N N Taleb's Probability Questions

20.3K views - 1 year ago

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 4

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 4 N N Taleb's Probability Questions

7.5K views - 1 year ago

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 3

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 3 N N Taleb's Probability Questions

8.9K views - 1 year ago

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 2

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 2 N N Taleb's Probability Questions

12.3K views - 1 year ago

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 1

Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings, Part 1 N N Taleb's Probability Questions

26.8K views - 1 year ago

STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024

STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024 N N Taleb's Probability Questions

10.7K views - 1 year ago

How to bluff when you don't know what you are talking about.

How to bluff when you don't know what you are talking about. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

20.8K views - 1 year ago

MINI LECTURE 18: How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations

MINI LECTURE 18: How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations N N Taleb's Probability Questions

7.5K views - 2 years ago

MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

12.7K views - 2 years ago

MINI LECTURE 16: On the Absurdity of Standard Genetics Reports.

MINI LECTURE 16: On the Absurdity of Standard Genetics Reports. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

8K views - 2 years ago

Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop)

Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

21.9K views - 2 years ago

MINI LECTURE 15 - Conditional vs. unconditional correlation: twin studies overestimate heredity.

MINI LECTURE 15 - Conditional vs. unconditional correlation: twin studies overestimate heredity. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

13.1K views - 3 years ago

MINI TUTORIAL: How to look at risk ratios & deal with disinformation: Saturated Fats & Nina Teicholz

MINI TUTORIAL: How to look at risk ratios & deal with disinformation: Saturated Fats & Nina Teicholz N N Taleb's Probability Questions

14.4K views - 3 years ago

A medical paper that does not replicate. Why?

A medical paper that does not replicate. Why? N N Taleb's Probability Questions

8.9K views - 3 years ago

No, Covid is not an "old" person's problem.

No, Covid is not an "old" person's problem. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

16.4K views - 3 years ago

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 2: We don't use Black-Scholes, the simpler derivation vindicating Bachelier.

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 2: We don't use Black-Scholes, the simpler derivation vindicating Bachelier. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

19.7K views - 3 years ago

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 1: Deriving Black-Sholes via Itô's lemma (the dynamic hedging approach)

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 1: Deriving Black-Sholes via Itô's lemma (the dynamic hedging approach) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

19.6K views - 3 years ago

Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness

Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness N N Taleb's Probability Questions

52.2K views - 4 years ago

QUANT FINANCE 1 - Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1

QUANT FINANCE 1 - Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1 N N Taleb's Probability Questions

128.4K views - 4 years ago

Conversation with Yaneer on Covid with mild disagreements.

Conversation with Yaneer on Covid with mild disagreements. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

13.8K views - 4 years ago

MINI LECTURE 14 A First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical).

MINI LECTURE 14 A First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical). N N Taleb's Probability Questions

26K views - 4 years ago

MINI LECTURE 13b - Technical Appendix. How to fix the problem of power laws with compact support.

MINI LECTURE 13b - Technical Appendix. How to fix the problem of power laws with compact support. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

6.8K views - 4 years ago

MINI LECTURE 13 - Claims that Violence Has Dropped Are Not Statistical

MINI LECTURE 13 - Claims that Violence Has Dropped Are Not Statistical N N Taleb's Probability Questions

21.5K views - 4 years ago

MINI LECTURE 12: How to Look at the Risks of Covid Vaccines

MINI LECTURE 12: How to Look at the Risks of Covid Vaccines N N Taleb's Probability Questions

49K views - 4 years ago

MINI LESSON 11b: Drawdowns and Logs

MINI LESSON 11b: Drawdowns and Logs N N Taleb's Probability Questions

22.7K views - 4 years ago

MINI LESSON 11: Path dependence in 2 ½ minutes

MINI LESSON 11: Path dependence in 2 ½ minutes N N Taleb's Probability Questions

20K views - 4 years ago

MINI LESSON 10: Simpson's Paradox & Its Exploitation by Covid Sociopaths in 3 ½ min.

MINI LESSON 10: Simpson's Paradox & Its Exploitation by Covid Sociopaths in 3 ½ min. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

54.6K views - 4 years ago

Supply Chain: The Convexity in 2 ½ minutes.

Supply Chain: The Convexity in 2 ½ minutes. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

26.8K views - 4 years ago

MINI LESSON 9c: Detecting Quackery in a Psychology Paper

MINI LESSON 9c: Detecting Quackery in a Psychology Paper N N Taleb's Probability Questions

22.4K views - 4 years ago

MIN-LESSON 9b: 2 min technical comments for Mini Lesson 9.

MIN-LESSON 9b: 2 min technical comments for Mini Lesson 9. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

10.9K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 9: Evidence Based Science & Mistakes in Particularizing the General (Simplified)

MINI-LESSON 9: Evidence Based Science & Mistakes in Particularizing the General (Simplified) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

67.8K views - 4 years ago

Comments on the "Bitcoin Black Paper" (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0)

Comments on the "Bitcoin Black Paper" (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

121K views - 4 years ago

MIN-LESSON 8b: (Power Laws) Q& A

MIN-LESSON 8b: (Power Laws) Q& A N N Taleb's Probability Questions

13.4K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified)

MINI-LESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

37.5K views - 4 years ago

MINI LESSON 7: P-Values and P-Value Hacking: a simplified lecture.

MINI LESSON 7: P-Values and P-Value Hacking: a simplified lecture. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

32.6K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 6: Fooled by Metrics (Correlation)

MINI-LESSON 6: Fooled by Metrics (Correlation) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

36.5K views - 4 years ago

The Gates Foundation is Repeating the Errors of Mao

The Gates Foundation is Repeating the Errors of Mao N N Taleb's Probability Questions

73.7K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 5: Correlation, the intuition. Doesn't mean what people usually think it means.

MINI-LESSON 5: Correlation, the intuition. Doesn't mean what people usually think it means. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

52.9K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 4: CLT, The Central Limit Theorem, a nontechnical presentation.

MINI-LESSON 4: CLT, The Central Limit Theorem, a nontechnical presentation. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

39K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 3: The Law of Large Numbers. A very intuitive introduction.

MINI-LESSON 3: The Law of Large Numbers. A very intuitive introduction. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

64.9K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 2: Fat Tails, a Very, Very Introductory Presentation.

MINI-LESSON 2: Fat Tails, a Very, Very Introductory Presentation. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

104K views - 4 years ago

MINI-LESSON 1: Breaking down intuitively the concept of standard deviation. Why pple don't get it.

MINI-LESSON 1: Breaking down intuitively the concept of standard deviation. Why pple don't get it. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

230.9K views - 4 years ago

How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach- Discussion with Dhruv Madeka

How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach- Discussion with Dhruv Madeka N N Taleb's Probability Questions

54.9K views - 5 years ago

Fake Regression by psychologists

Fake Regression by psychologists N N Taleb's Probability Questions

55.1K views - 5 years ago

Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb N N Taleb's Probability Questions

30.5K views - 5 years ago

Ellipticality and Portfolios: Informal conversation with Raphael Douady (in French)

Ellipticality and Portfolios: Informal conversation with Raphael Douady (in French) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

15.6K views - 5 years ago

Ellipticality (Technical)

Ellipticality (Technical) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

18.2K views - 5 years ago

Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo

Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo N N Taleb's Probability Questions

17.9K views - 5 years ago

What You See and Don't See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution.

What You See and Don't See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution. N N Taleb's Probability Questions

32.6K views - 5 years ago

Never use single point estimates for pandemics

Never use single point estimates for pandemics N N Taleb's Probability Questions

91.2K views - 5 years ago

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben N N Taleb's Probability Questions

16.8K views - 5 years ago

MINI LECTURE 8c: A simple tricks to see the effect of power laws

MINI LECTURE 8c: A simple tricks to see the effect of power laws N N Taleb's Probability Questions

18.4K views - 5 years ago

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

374.5K views - 5 years ago

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) N N Taleb's Probability Questions

139.5K views - 6 years ago